The end of the ACC regular season marks the beginning of the most important part of the basketball schedule. Not the playoffs, but the annual period of bickering among fans over the meaning of the regular season results. This post endeavors to make sure that, as Hoos fans, you ride valiantly into your verbal battles.
We’ll update previous posts that supported Mike Scott for the ACC Player of the Year and set conditions over the last four games for the Hoos for make the Big Dance.
[Argument 1: Mike Scott should be ACC PoY]
A previous post made the case for Mike Scott as PoY in terms of the value of his contributions to his team.[1]
Since I’ve always stuck with EFF as an all-encompassing statistic, I’ll stay with it now. Tyler Zeller has a season EFF of 21.3. Mike Scott has a season EFF of 20.5. In terms of sheer statistics, Zeller outperformed Scott this season.[2]
But I think importance to one’s team is an equally important factor in determining PoY. Where would the Hoos be without Scott, and where would the Heels be without Zeller? These tables will give us an idea:
Scott is either first or second in all three categories. Zeller is 5th, 4th, and 2nd. Scott’s offensive contributions (EFF) overall are worth 25%[3] more to his team than Zeller’s. It’s hard to imagine where the Hoos would be without Scott. It’s hard to imagine where in the top 25 the Heels would be without Zeller.
Final Argument Advice: Just pull up this post on your phone and show it to your opponent.[4] Maybe elaborate on the value argument a little. Since the overall stats are close, Mike should win based on his overwhelming value to the Hoos.
[Argument 2: The Hoos should make the Big Dance]
In one of the more um … creative posts featured on this blog,[5] I set requirements for the Hoos’ performance over their final four games in order to make the Big Dance. Let’s see where they ended up (pending the ACC tournament).
Point 1 – RPI
The Hoos need to avoid an RPI of 50+ to be comfortable on Selection Sunday. One RPI projection site has them at 41[6], while another has them at 45.[7] It seems safe to say the Hoos are somewhere in the low-mid 40s, which is significantly better than the highest ACC miss over the last two years of 52 (Tech 2010). Better yet, Tech was a bit of an outlier; an RPI cutoff of 60 more accurately represents the line dividing bubble teams. Even a loss on Friday in the ACC tournament would avoid a tumble into the risky RPI area. Conclusion: IN.
Point 2 – ACC Record
The Hoos needed to go 2-2 over their final four ACC games … badly. No teams with an ACC record of 8-8 have made the tournament over the last two years.[8] Three of five 9-7 teams made the tournament over the same time period. 10-6 would have been nice, but given the Hoos strong national ranking for most of the season, I’m thinking they’ll be on the good side of the 9-7 history. Conclusion: IN.
Final Argument Advice: Both of the above two points suggest that the Hoos will be in next Sunday. While arguing, you should probably break out the Safety Dance[9] to really drive home your point. We’re in; regardless of what happens on Thursday or beyond.[10]
- [1] more explanation of the rationale can be found in the previous post ↩
- [2] HERESY!!!! ↩
- [3] a difference of 5% / 20% (Zeller’s EFF) ↩
- [4] perhaps I need to work on the mobile site ↩
- [5] it had been a weird day ↩
- [6] Real Time RPI ↩
- [7] Stat Sheet ↩
- [8] hence the monumental importance of yesterday’s win ↩
- [9] linked again for your viewing pleasure ↩
- [10] Although that’s just the humble opinion of this blog and is in no way binding on the Selection Committee. At least not yet *cackles evilly* ↩