[This post is part of a season preview series that breaks down the offense and defense in multiple sections. Each section will end with an attempt to both evaluate which players should start and quantify a predicted change in performance from last season. The last post will sum up the series,[1] giving a final prediction of the team record for 2012. The following is the fourth section of offense.]
Part I left off with a graph and equations that trace the predicted performance of Parks and Richardson in 2012. The next step in fully rendering our three-headed RB monster is predicting Superman Jones’ improvement. After quantifying the fourth year’s growth, the post will conclude with an analysis of the RBs individually and as a unit.
{GROWTH – PERRY JONES}
I used the arc of Wali Lundy’s distinguished career as a Hoo to predict Jones’ 2012 statistical fortitude. As with Parks and Richardson, I plotted and traced both yards per carry and yards per game, this time over three years of solid production.[2] Jones will likely play games 26-39 in the graph below:[3]
Keep in mind that these graphs are a percentage over the mean. To wit, I was initially shocked that the projected Hoo RB career takes a dramatic plunge in yards per game in the last year. But in this graph the decline really only happens after game 31, when the curve dips below 0%. Prior to this point, despite the ominous negative slope, the percentage is still positive, indicating continued improvement.[4] We’ll use the growth graph for both sets of RBs in the dramatic …
{RB CONCLUSION}
[Yards per Game]
We’ll tackle yards per game first because this stat is nowhere near as standardized a predictor as yards per carry. Yards per game fluctuate wildly, even in a very successful season, and depend more on number of carries than skill.[5] The precision of the predicted yards output here, as compared to predicted yards per carry, thus analogizes well to the U.S. Men’s to Women’s Gymnastics performances in the team competition; the yards output has some promise, but will likely end up proverbially sitting on the pommel horse.[6] The analysis should nonetheless be interesting and might help us at least figure out the distribution of total yards.
The previously formulated graphs and equations helped create the chart below. I traced predicted yards per game in the first game, the mid-season game, and the last game. The bold column is a prediction of yards per game average for the whole year.
There is an error[7] in Parks’ column; his overall yards per game should be 63.89, not 83.89. [8] This decreases the yards per game for the corps as a whole to just slightly more than last year (166.30). The percentage distribution of yards in 2012 then becomes 38%, 24%, and 38% from top to bottom.
As you’ve probably noticed, we’re splitting hairs here by saying that Parks will improve by 4 yards per game and Jones will produce 8 fewer yards per game. But it might not be so unbelievable. London and Lazor have stated a desire to expand the passing game in 2012. A more robust passing attack coupled with an improving, already talented, running back group could effectively offset each other. By emphasizing the passing game more, perhaps Jones sees even more short passes, freeing up carries for rising backs who definitely deserve a greater role. We’ll see. The yards per game figures might not be too far off, but I’m not holding my breath.
[Yards per Carry]
The yards per carry graph below was created with the same equation procedure.[9] We’ll use this stat as our defining improvement metric since it is the more standardized measure of skill.
A one might expect, the two younger backs have a sharp increase in yards per carry to start the season, but tire as the games wear on and the opposition improves. Parks and Richardson will both improve about 2% overall. Superman, on the other hand, is all rise throughout his last season; improving about 17% overall. The Man of Steel will prove that decline is only for those not from Krypton.[10]
These measurements suggest an average overall improvement of 7% for the running backs. Consider that there are about 13 games in a bowl season. Each game is then 7.7% of the season. The running back growth alone is effectively worth a whole game of improvement on the Hoos’ record. Following the 2% improvement for quarterbacks, the offense is looking quite strong.
Check back for a special report from next week’s live practices, where I will actually need to go outside and observe football in order to create blog content. An analysis of the inexperienced, über-talented pass catchers will follow.[11]
- [1] hopefully appearing before September 1st … ↩
- [2] I was tempted to go on my non-use of touchdowns soliloquy again here … I’ll spare you this time ↩
- [3] again assuming the Hoos can at least find their way into the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. On a side note, I find myself quite confident in this reaching of bowls assumption, despite last year being our first trip since Jefferson himself graced Monticello. Just call me a hopeless optimist. ↩
- [4] slowing improvement, but improvement nonetheless …. Ok, i’m pretty sure you get this now, I’ll stop explaining ↩
- [5] although there is an obvious correlation there ↩
- [6] zing! ↩
- [7] gasp! ↩
- [8] Kind of a long story, but basically I took a screen shot of the table, then promptly lost the data in the excel file that created it. An regrettable and unfortunate transcribing error ↩
- [9] except no errors this time! ↩
- [10] Krypton was him home planet; I looked it up. So it’s kind of weird that he was deathly allergic to a mineral that presumably comprised his home planet. Although I’m allergic to grass and trees …. so I guess that makes me Superman. ↩
- [11] I.e. the wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs; since Lazor likes to spreading around. ↩
