Tag Archives: running back

Season Preview – Offense: The Three-headed RB Monster, Part II

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[This post is part of a season preview series that breaks down the offense and defense in multiple sections. Each section will end with an attempt to both evaluate which players should start and quantify a predicted change in performance from last season. The last post will sum up the series,[1] giving a final prediction of the team record for 2012. The following is the fourth section of offense.]

Part I left off with a graph and equations that trace the predicted performance of Parks and Richardson in 2012. The next step in fully rendering our three-headed RB monster is predicting Superman Jones’ improvement. After quantifying the fourth year’s growth, the post will conclude with an analysis of the RBs individually and as a unit.

{GROWTH – PERRY JONES}
I used the arc of Wali Lundy’s distinguished career as a Hoo to predict Jones’ 2012 statistical fortitude. As with Parks and Richardson, I plotted and traced both yards per carry and yards per game, this time over three years of solid production.[2] Jones will likely play games 26-39 in the graph below:[3]

Keep in mind that these graphs are a percentage over the mean. To wit, I was initially shocked that the projected Hoo RB career takes a dramatic plunge in yards per game in the last year. But in this graph the decline really only happens after game 31, when the curve dips below 0%. Prior to this point, despite the ominous negative slope, the percentage is still positive, indicating continued improvement.[4] We’ll use the growth graph for both sets of RBs in the dramatic …

{RB CONCLUSION}

[Yards per Game]
We’ll tackle yards per game first because this stat is nowhere near as standardized a predictor as yards per carry. Yards per game fluctuate wildly, even in a very successful season, and depend more on number of carries than skill.[5] The precision of the predicted yards output here, as compared to predicted yards per carry, thus analogizes well to the U.S. Men’s to Women’s Gymnastics performances in the team competition; the yards output has some promise, but will likely end up proverbially sitting on the pommel horse.[6] The analysis should nonetheless be interesting and might help us at least figure out the distribution of total yards.

The previously formulated graphs and equations helped create the chart below. I traced predicted yards per game in the first game, the mid-season game, and the last game. The bold column is a prediction of yards per game average for the whole year.

There is an error[7] in Parks’ column; his overall yards per game should be 63.89, not 83.89. [8] This decreases the yards per game for the corps as a whole to just slightly more than last year (166.30). The percentage distribution of yards in 2012 then becomes 38%, 24%, and 38% from top to bottom.

As you’ve probably noticed, we’re splitting hairs here by saying that Parks will improve by 4 yards per game and Jones will produce 8 fewer yards per game. But it might not be so unbelievable. London and Lazor have stated a desire to expand the passing game in 2012. A more robust passing attack coupled with an improving, already talented, running back group could effectively offset each other. By emphasizing the passing game more, perhaps Jones sees even more short passes, freeing up carries for rising backs who definitely deserve a greater role. We’ll see. The yards per game figures might not be too far off, but I’m not holding my breath.

[Yards per Carry]
The yards per carry graph below was created with the same equation procedure.[9] We’ll use this stat as our defining improvement metric since it is the more standardized measure of skill.

A one might expect, the two younger backs have a sharp increase in yards per carry to start the season, but tire as the games wear on and the opposition improves. Parks and Richardson will both improve about 2% overall. Superman, on the other hand, is all rise throughout his last season; improving about 17% overall. The Man of Steel will prove that decline is only for those not from Krypton.[10]

These measurements suggest an average overall improvement of 7% for the running backs. Consider that there are about 13 games in a bowl season. Each game is then 7.7% of the season. The running back growth alone is effectively worth a whole game of improvement on the Hoos’ record. Following the 2% improvement for quarterbacks, the offense is looking quite strong.

Check back for a special report from next week’s live practices, where I will actually need to go outside and observe football in order to create blog content. An analysis of the inexperienced, über-talented pass catchers will follow.[11]

  1. [1] hopefully appearing before September 1st … ↩
  2. [2] I was tempted to go on my non-use of touchdowns soliloquy again here … I’ll spare you this time ↩
  3. [3] again assuming the Hoos can at least find their way into the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. On a side note, I find myself quite confident in this reaching of bowls assumption, despite last year being our first trip since Jefferson himself graced Monticello. Just call me a hopeless optimist. ↩
  4. [4] slowing improvement, but improvement nonetheless …. Ok, i’m pretty sure you get this now, I’ll stop explaining ↩
  5. [5] although there is an obvious correlation there ↩
  6. [6] zing! ↩
  7. [7] gasp! ↩
  8. [8] Kind of a long story, but basically I took a screen shot of the table, then promptly lost the data in the excel file that created it. An regrettable and unfortunate transcribing error ↩
  9. [9] except no errors this time! ↩
  10. [10] Krypton was him home planet; I looked it up. So it’s kind of weird that he was deathly allergic to a mineral that presumably comprised his home planet. Although I’m allergic to grass and trees …. so I guess that makes me Superman. ↩
  11. [11] I.e. the wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs; since Lazor likes to spreading around. ↩

Season Preview – Offense: The Three-headed RB Monster, Part I

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[This post is part of a season preview series that breaks down the offense and defense in multiple sections. Each section will end with an attempt to both evaluate which players should start and quantify a predicted change in performance from last season. The last post will sum up the series,[1] giving a final prediction of the team record for 2012. The following is the third section of offense.]

Superman can leap tall buildings in a single bound, execute inhuman feats of strength[2], and take flight at will. He also happens to carry the ball for the Hoos. Well, at least the version who uses the “Perry Jones” alter ego does. The running back position has been a strength for the Hoos, perhaps only due to the preferred non-flashy style of play and lack of game-breaking passers. But since last season when Jones developed into a serious threat, and talented first years Kevin Parks and Clifton Richardson took the field, the Hoos backfield has never looked better. Regardless of whether Perry can actually run through a brick wall, the three backs should form a mythical superhero / three headed monster[3] hybrid that will both inspire awe and strike fear into opposing defenses.

We already know that these three will split the carries for the Hoos, with Jones likely “starting” by virtue of stepping on the field before the other backs. The interesting issues will instead be the breakdown in carries and the potential improvement of what could easily be the Hoos strongest unit. I first plotted the yards per game and yards per carry for each back from last year. This should give us an initial notion of each back’s current skill level.

Now that we have a rough idea of where the backs were, let’s attempt to predict where they’re headed in 2012. I approached the issue of predicting growth much as I did for the quarterbacks; finding similarly situated players, and discerning their difference in performance for the season in question. For Parks and Richardson[4] I sought past Hoos backs who had received a lot of carries in their first season, and traced their improvement into a second full season.[5] For Jones, a Hoos back entering his third year of significant work.[6]

I purposefully removed touchdowns from this analysis. Although fantasy football puts a lot of weight on surging over that final yard into the end zone, is that yard really worth any more than a boring one yard gain starting at your own 36? Honestly, yes. There are certainly arguments for emphasizing touchdowns over sheer yards. Suggesting that a touchdown is worthless is akin to the back getting tackled on the goal line, when potentially he could have advanced the ball much further.[7] The goal line also poses an issue of limited space which crowds the defense into a better run-stopping position. I’m not suggesting eliminating touchdowns is an ideal method of assessing running back skill. But short of devising a new, potentially even less accurate formula, removing touchdowns is just better representative of skill. It’s an improvement over allowing touchdown weight to skew the raw yard-gaining talent that we’re seeking to measure. Both parts of this post instead concentrate on yards per game and yards per carry as the two crucial RB stats.

Part I will continue with the growth predictions for Parks and Richardson. Part II will pick up right where Part I left off[8], predicting the mild-mannered Jones’ growth and concluding with a comparison and season predictions for the corps[9] as a whole.

{GROWTH – KEVIN PARKS AND CLIFTON RICHARDSON}
Wali Lundy[10] and Superman himself are the two players most representative of Parks and Richardson’s early career path. I sacrificed a greater quantity of comparison players for these two that more closely mirrored our dynamic duo; many recent-ish Hoos backs only received a meaningful number of carries late in their career, or were the victim of constant position changes[11] I used data on yards per carry and yards per game for each back over their first two seasons of significant production in the chart below, removing the single best and the single worst games from each.

Parks and Richardson will likely play games 14-26 in 2012.[12] To discern their growth, I determined the deviation from average for each of Lundy and Jones’ games from their first two seasons, which appears in the columns after yards per carry and yards per game. I plotted the games versus these percentage deviations and fit lines for both stats in the graph below.

We’ll use these graphs to predict Parks and Richardson’s[13] yards per carry and yards per game both overall and at various points throughout the 2012 season … in part II. So tune in later this week for Jones’ growth and a prediction of this monster’s reign of chaos and destruction versus 2012 opponent defenses.

Footnotes:

  1. [1] hopefully appearing before September 1st … ↩
  2. [2] which may or may not follow the airing of grievances ↩
  3. [3] but no signs of infighting yet ↩
  4. [4] I wrote “Parks and Recreation” here about three times before I finally typed correctly. There’s potential here for a nickname, I’m just not sure what it is yet … ↩
  5. [5] I.e. the season Parks and Richardson are currently entering ↩
  6. [6] Superman, a fourth year, only had 9 carries his first year ↩
  7. [7] without that pesky end-zone in the way ↩
  8. [8] bet you weren’t expecting that at all ↩
  9. [9] or monster ↩
  10. [10] remember him? He’s a rapper now. Not even kidding. ↩
  11. [11] see Simpson, Mikell ↩
  12. [12] assuming a bowl; at this point we’ll just be as optimistic as possible ↩
  13. [13] really can’t get enough of that ↩